– Robaird O’Cearbhaill
Since WW2 there has not been a global crisis at this level, and it is changing the world. The coronavirus is so contagious it cannot be stopped without lockdowns. Contact tracing, wide testing and best hygiene practices: without these measures experts have predicted 80% infections in national populations. For example, Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel told her parliament that that’d be the case for her country without prevention.
Even the 2008 financial crisis did not shock up societies as this plague has done. Very threatening, plausible post Covid-19 scenarios are shaking up citizens, governments and relevant experts. The danger scenarios are broad.
Of course medicine, science and the study of contagious diseases must be strengthened. Many experts have predicted this type of pandemic. National health systems, even in the richest countries, are being overwhelmed. Where is their future if we don’t boost funding preparedness and enough scientific research?
There are other predictable major pandemic challenges including the revival of national economies and citizens’ welfare as dire poverty and unemployment balloon everywhere. Even in the world’s richest country a senior economist expects 30-40% more people without a job by the end of the year versus by far the highest level ever. He estimates their economy this year will shrink by 24% half way through this year.
Also worrying are students’ postponed futures. Education rationed out online brings lower teaching results, e.g. summer national school examinations in the UK are cancelled. But beyond these crucial issues, perhaps, the biggest outcome will be the new world order.
Where will the two competing superpowers China and the USA stand, and rich nations, such as Japan and Germany, be economically and in terms of soft power influence, when the crisis ends? The Guardian diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour’s piece is enlightening: “… world leaders, diplomats and geopolitical analysts know they are living through epoch-making times and have one eye on the daily combat, the other on what this crisis will bequeath the world. Competing ideologies, power blocs, leaders and systems of social cohesion are being stress-tested in the court of world opinion. Already everyone in the global village is starting to draw lessons. The discussion in global think tanks rages, not about cooperation, but whether the Chinese or the US will emerge as leaders of the post-coronavirus world.’’
Another decisive factor is rising: the pressure of national security AKA sovereignty, pitted against, the until now, holy cow – globalization. Some or much de-globalization seems likely, as countries realise the dangerous fragility of extended manufacturing supply chains, disrupted with travel and freight traffic chopped down.
António Guterres, a fervent Catholic and United Nations Secretary-General, former Prime Minister of Portugal warns: “Covid-19 is showing dramatically, either we join [together] … or we can be defeated.”
Pope Francis seeks community solidarity and “civilisation of hope.” This is what he wrote in an article published in the Spanish Catholic magazine. Entitled “Plan for rising again,” the reflection was inspired by the rising of Jesus and the courage of Mary who dared to enter Jesus’s empty tomb.
The Pope said during Covid we must follow that woman’s courage and support those suffering. We have a duty to be “the necessary antibodies of justice, charity and solidarity. Let us not be afraid to live the alternative civilization of love.” It is a “civilization of hope,” he says, confounding “anxiety and fear, sadness and fatigue.”
As the pontiff insists, a “committed community of brothers and sisters” must “act as one people…to have a real impact.” We must also attend to “other epidemics that beset us.” Sr Bernadette Mary Reis remarked in Vatican News: ‘What are these other “epidemics”? “Hunger, war, poverty, environmental devastation, the globalization of indifference . Moreover His Holiness engaged the Vatican dicasteries to give full attention to the pandemic.
Vida Nueva reported that “Pope Francis has put half the Vatican to work on a commission on Covid-19, a job commissioned by Cardinal Peter Turkson. The prefect of the Dicastery for Integral Human Service (DSDHI) is already working with his team and in collaboration with other dicasteries of the Roman Curia” to “analyze and reflect on future socio-economic and cultural challenges and propose guidelines to face them.”
On the one hand there is widespread fear of Covid, gloom about economic and other side effects, the potential benefits, are there and for the future.
Many families benefit. Those not suffering, are often closer, not just for emotional security, sharing health worries but being at home a lot more – parents and kids. Few hard-working parents before the crisis had enough family time. Closer happy families breed good outside their homes with neighbors and colleagues. As Pope Francis has said often, families are, the core of society, very precious.
Also environmental destruction and global warming may be mitigated, as people enjoy cleaner air while less vehicles operate.
Other beneficial effects of the pandemic are social and work distancing. Therefore re-orientating cities to keep people more apart will provide better preparation for the next pandemic. Numerous contagious diseases and public health experts have long agreed there will be more. When cities are reopened, people will be looking for affordable, reliable ways … to keep physical distance while commuting, and may even turn to ride sharing, bicycles, and scooters. Local governments, as well as key advocates and stakeholders, should reshape our cities to be built around people and not cars.
Another trend accelerating under lockdown is the digital revolution at home for work, education and delivered e-shopping. From being unusual it is – for now – normal, despite the common dislike of change. Maybe commuting is on the way out, especially if the pandemic runs on much longer. Commuters may prefer to move to more liveable cleaner places. Matthew Prince, CEO of Cloudflare talking to Fast Company magazine agrees.
“The pandemic…is effectively the largest ‘work from home’ experiment in human history. People are accessing more educational resources online for their kids, unconventional ways to connect with co-workers, friends, and family, and employers are being more flexible in how they respond to employee needs through more dynamic, cloud-based technology. I think we’ll see these shifts last well beyond the immediate fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.”
The second influence towards working online, after lockdowns is advancing AI software, allowing robots to replace clerk level staff. Many employees working from home boosts AI and robot development. The inevitable future is happening faster.
Now the unfortunate effects on economic stability and growth. As many economies move from growth to regression, poverty and unemployment expands. There will be shutting down of shops, public transport, shipping, restaurants and entertainment venues. Many businesses will fail too: so many jobs gone. A solution is very bountiful official and deep pocketed philanthropists’ sponsorship. But for how long and will it be enough?
But there is a fruitful, possible way to solve bottom level poverty, at least in richer countries as Spain has just done. State-funded universal basic income was an idea until recently mostly dismissed as character destroying and an unneeded drain. Rejected by the Swiss in a national referendum it has now been widely discussed, given the drastic level of poverty soon arriving in rich and poor nations.
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